Global conservation status of the jawed vertebrate Tree of Life.

Human-driven extinction threatens entire lineages across the Tree of Life. Here we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history, using three policy-relevant approaches. First, we calculate an index of threat to overall evolutionary history, showing that we expect to lose 86-150 billion years (11-19%) of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history over the next 50-500 years. Second, we rank jawed vertebrate species by their EDGE scores to identify the highest priorities for species-focused conservation of evolutionary history, finding that chondrichthyans, ray-finned fish and testudines rank highest of all jawed vertebrates. Third, we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate families. We found that species within monotypic families are more likely to be threatened and more likely to be in decline than other species. We provide a baseline for the status of families at risk of extinction to catalyse conservation action. This work continues a trend of highlighting neglected groups-such as testudines, crocodylians, amphibians and chondrichthyans-as conservation priorities from a phylogenetic perspective.

Anthropogenic predictors of varying Holocene occurrence for Europe's large mammal fauna.

Understanding how species respond to different anthropogenic pressures is essential for conservation planning. The archaeological record has great potential to inform extinction risk assessment by providing evidence on past human-caused biodiversity loss, but identifying specific drivers of past declines from environmental archives has proved challenging. We used 17 684 Holocene zooarchaeological records for 15 European large mammal species together with data on past environmental conditions and anthropogenic activities across Europe, to assess the ability of environmental archives to determine the relative importance of different human pressures in shaping faunal distributions through time. Site occupancy probability showed differing significant relationships with environmental covariates for all species, and nine species also showed significant relationships with anthropogenic covariates (human population density, % cropland, % grazing land). Across-species differences in negative relationships with covariates provide ecological insights for understanding extinction dynamics: some mammals (red deer, aurochs, wolf, wildcat, lynx, pine marten and beech marten) were more vulnerable to past human-environmental interactions, and differing single and synergistic anthropogenic factors influenced likelihood of past occurrence across species. Our results provide new evidence for pre-industrial population fragmentation and depletion in European mammals, and demonstrate the usefulness of historical baselines for understanding species' varying long-term sensitivity to multiple threats.

Dwarfism and gigantism drive human-mediated extinctions on islands.

Islands have long been recognized as distinctive evolutionary arenas leading to morphologically divergent species, such as dwarfs and giants. We assessed how body size evolution in island mammals may have exacerbated their vulnerability, as well as how human arrival has contributed to their past and ongoing extinctions, by integrating data on 1231 extant and 350 extinct species from islands and paleo islands worldwide spanning the past 23 million years. We found that the likelihood of extinction and of endangerment are highest in the most extreme island dwarfs and giants. Extinction risk of insular mammals was compounded by the arrival of modern humans, which accelerated extinction rates more than 10-fold, resulting in an almost complete demise of these iconic marvels of island evolution.

Contrasting ecological information content in whaling archives with modern cetacean surveys for conservation planning and identification of historical distribution changes.

Many species are restricted to a marginal or suboptimal fraction of their historical range due to anthropogenic impacts, making it hard to interpret their ecological preferences from modern-day data alone. However, inferring past ecological states is limited by the availability of robust data and biases in historical archives, posing a challenge for policy makers . To highlight how historical records can be used to understand the ecological requirements of threatened species and inform conservation, we investigated sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) distribution in the Western Indian Ocean. We assessed differences in information content and habitat suitability predictions based on whale occurrence data from Yankee whaling logs (1792-1912) and from modern cetacean surveys (1995-2020). We built maximum entropy habitat suitability models containing static (bathymetry-derived) variables to compare models comprising historical-only and modern-only data. Using both historical and modern habitat suitability predictions  we assessed marine protected area (MPA) placement by contrasting suitability in- and outside MPAs. The historical model predicted high habitat suitability in shelf and coastal regions near continents and islands, whereas the modern model predicted a less coastal distribution with high habitat suitability more restricted to areas of steep topography. The proportion of high habitat suitability inside versus outside MPAs was higher when applying the historical predictions than the modern predictions, suggesting that different marine spatial planning optimums can be reached from either data sources. Moreover, differences in relative habitat suitability predictions between eras were consistent with the historical depletion of sperm whales from coastal regions, which were easily accessed and targeted by whalers, resulting in a modern distribution limited more to steep continental margins and remote oceanic ridges. The use of historical data can provide important new insights and, through cautious interpretation, inform conservation planning and policy, for example, by identifying refugee species and regions of anticipated population recovery.

Contrastes del contenido de información ecológica entre los archivos de la caza de ballenas y los censos actuales de cetáceos para la planeación de la conservación y la identificación de cambios en la distribución histórica Resumen Muchas especies están restringidas a una fracción marginal o subóptima de su área de distribución histórica debido a impactos antropogénicos. Esto dificulta interpretar sus preferencias ecológicas con sólo usar los datos actuales. Sin embargo, la inferencia de estados ecológicos pasados está limitada a la disponibilidad de datos sólidos y a los sesgos de los archivos históricos, lo que plantea un reto para la conservación y los responsables de las políticas. Analizamos la distribución del cachalote (Physeter macrocephalus) en el Océano Índico occidental para resaltar cómo pueden utilizarse los registros históricos para comprender los requisitos ecológicos de las especies amenazadas y direccionar su conservación. Evaluamos las diferencias en el contenido de la información y las predicciones de idoneidad del hábitat basadas en los datos de presencia de ballenas de los registros balleneros Yanquis (1792-1912) y de los estudios actuales sobre cetáceos (1995-2020). Construimos modelos de idoneidad de hábitat con máxima entropía que incluían variables estáticas (derivadas de la batimetría) para comparar los modelos que abarcan datos históricos y actuales. Evaluamos la ubicación de las áreas marinas protegidas (AMP) contrastando las predicciones dentro y fuera de ellas con los modelos históricos y actuales de la idoneidad del hábitat. El modelo histórico predijo una alta idoneidad del hábitat en las regiones costeras y de la plataforma continental cercanas a los continentes e islas, mientras que el modelo moderno predijo una distribución menos costera con una alta idoneidad del hábitat más restringida a las zonas de topografía escarpada. La proporción de hábitats de alta idoneidad dentro y fuera de las AMP fue mayor con la aplicación de las predicciones históricas que con la de las modernas, lo que sugiere que se pueden alcanzar diferentes niveles óptimos de ordenación del espacio marino a partir de ambas fuentes de datos. Además, las diferencias entre los periodos en las predicciones relacionadas con la idoneidad del hábitat fueron coherentes con la reducción histórica de los cachalotes en las regiones costeras, las cuales eran fácilmente accesibles para los balleneros, lo que resultó en una distribución actual más limitada a los márgenes continentales escarpados y a las crestas oceánicas remotas. El uso de datos históricos puede aportar nuevos e importantes conocimientos e informar, mediante una interpretación prudente, a la planificación y la política de conservación; por ejemplo, con la identificación de especies refugiadas y regiones de recuperación poblacional.

Global biodiversity conservation requires traditional Chinese medicine trade to be sustainable and well regulated.

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is highlighted by conservation practitioners as an ongoing threat to many overharvested plant and animal species, including several charismatic threatened vertebrates. However, studies that provide evidence-based and practical recommendations on how to better regulate the TCM trade for sustainability and biodiversity conservation remain limited. China is the biggest promotor of and market for TCM and understanding the TCM trade in China is important for global biodiversity conservation. In particular, conservation researchers need to better understand how the TCM trade and its regulations interact with China's development needs and should collaborate with TCM communities to propose locally adapted suggestions to decision makers. However, progress in these areas has been restricted by language, cultural, and knowledge barriers. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current status of TCM-related regulations in China, identify weaknesses in regulation frameworks, and highlight issues that currently limit our understanding of the magnitude, dynamics, and impact of the trade. We propose changes in trade regulations, actions to enhance law enforcement, and future research directions to encourage a more sustainable TCM trade that benefits both global biodiversity conservation and TCM development.

Functional extinction of dugongs in China.

Dugongs (Dugong dugon) experienced a serious population decline in China during the twentieth century, and their regional status is poorly understood. To determine their current distribution and status, we conducted a large-scale interview survey of marine resource users across four Chinese provinces and reviewed all available historical data covering the past distribution of dugongs in Chinese waters. Only 5% of 788 respondents reported past dugong sightings, with a mean last-sighting date of 23 years earlier, and only three respondents reported sightings from within the past 5 years. Historical records of dugongs peak around 1960 and then decrease rapidly from 1975 onwards; no records are documented after 2008, with no verified field observations after 2000. Based on these findings, we are forced to conclude that dugongs have experienced rapid population collapse during recent decades and are now functionally extinct in China. Our study provides evidence of a new regional loss of a charismatic marine megafaunal species, and the first reported functional extinction of a large vertebrate in Chinese marine waters. This rapid documented population collapse also serves as a sobering reminder that extinctions can occur before effective conservation actions are developed.

Dietary isotopes of Madagascar's extinct megafauna reveal holocene browsing and grazing guilds.

Megafauna play a disproportionate role in developing and maintaining their biomes, by regulating plant dispersal, community structure and nutrient cycling. Understanding the ecological roles of extinct megafaunal communities, for example through dietary reconstruction using isotope analysis, is necessary to determine pre-human states and set evidence-based restoration goals. We use δ13C and δ15N isotopic analyses to reconstruct Holocene feeding guilds in Madagascar's extinct megaherbivores, which included elephant birds, hippopotami and giant tortoises that occurred across multiple habitats and elevations. We compare isotopic data from seven taxa and two elephant bird eggshell morphotypes against contemporary regional floral baselines to infer dietary subsistence strategies. Most taxa show high consumption of C3 and/or CAM plants, providing evidence of widespread browsing ecology. However, Aepyornis hildebrandti, an elephant bird restricted to the central highlands region, has isotope values with much higher δ13C values than other taxa. This species is interpreted as having obtained up to 48% of its diet from C4 grasses. These findings provide new evidence for distinct browsing and grazing guilds in Madagascar's Holocene megaherbivore fauna, with implications for past regional distribution of ecosystems dominated by endemic C4 grasses.

The medium over the message: Differential knowledge of conservation outreach activities and implications for threatened species.

Conservation outreach is regularly conducted to increase support for conservation by altering local awareness and attitudes about species or environmental issues. However, there is often little assessment of the effectiveness of these activities. We investigated knowledge of past conservation outreach in 26 villages adjacent to Bawangling National Nature Reserve, Hainan, China, which contains the last population of the Hainan gibbon (Nomascus hainanus). The medium of past outreach activities was reported most frequently by interviewees, followed by who delivered them and the outreach topic, with the fewest interviewees reporting the specific messages being communicated (the consequences of following conservation management policies). Negatively-framed messages, emphasizing prohibited activities and associated punishments, were reported more than positively-framed messages that aimed to foster conservation support. Male interviewees and those with higher education levels reported more aspects of past activities. The Hainan gibbon had higher salience than other threatened native species, and reporting the occurrence (but not necessarily the content) of past outreach was associated with increased likelihood of knowing that gibbons were threatened. These findings highlight the need for conservation outreach to increase both exposure and retention of key messages among target audiences. Meaningful and concrete conservation benefits should be communicated to local communities, and the effectiveness of outreach using a flagship species could be expanded to also improve awareness of other conservation-priority species within the same landscape.

Extinct insular oryzomyine rice rats (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae) from the Grenada Bank, southern Caribbean.

The Lesser Antillean island chain in the eastern Caribbean formerly supported a diverse rodent fauna including multiple endemic genera of oryzomyine rice rats. The Caribbean rice rats are now all extinct, with most island populations known only from Holocene palaeontological and zooarchaeological material and with many remaining taxonomically undescribed. Rice rat material is reported from several pre-Columbian Ceramic Age (late Holocene) archaeological sites on the Grenada Bank, including sites on Grenada and Carriacou, but the taxonomic identity and diversity of the Grenada Bank rice rats has remained uncertain. We provide a morphology-based description of rice rats from Grenada and Carriacou, and analyze their phylogenetic and biogeographical affinities to other Caribbean and mainland Neotropical oryzomyines. We recognize two taxa from the Grenada Bank: we describe the new species Megalomys camerhogne from Pearls (Grenada), representing the largest-bodied member of the extinct endemic Caribbean genus Megalomys, and we refer smaller-bodied oryzomyine material from Pearls and Sabazan (Carriacou) to the widespread extant Neotropical species Zygodontomys brevicauda. Body size variation within Megalomys correlates with island bank area and might thus reflect historical rather than modern biogeography. Zygodontomys specimens from the Grenada Bank fall within the upper end of size variation in extant populations and may constitute an example of 'island gigantism', but it is possible that occurrence of this widespread species on the Grenada Bank might reflect prehistoric human-mediated translocation. We predict further endemic Caribbean rice rat taxa remain to be discovered, including a possible species of Megalomys on the neighbouring island of St. Vincent.

Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna.

Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past losses. We investigated factors that regulated survival or extinction in Caribbean mammals, which have experienced the globally highest level of human-caused postglacial mammalian extinctions, and included all extinct and extant Holocene island populations of non-volant species (219 survivals or extinctions across 118 islands). Extinction selectivity shows a statistically detectable and complex body mass effect, with survival probability decreasing for both mass extremes, indicating that intermediate-sized species have been more resilient. A strong interaction between mass and age of first human arrival provides quantitative evidence of larger mammals going extinct on the earliest islands colonized, revealing an extinction filter caused by past human activities. Survival probability increases on islands with lower mean elevation (mostly small cays acting as offshore refugia) and decreases with more frequent hurricanes, highlighting the risk of extreme weather events and rising sea levels to surviving species on low-lying cays. These findings demonstrate the interplay between intrinsic biology, regional ecology and specific local threats, providing insights for understanding drivers of biodiversity loss across island systems and fragmented habitats worldwide.

Identifying the possibilities and pitfalls of conducting IUCN Red List assessments from remotely sensed habitat information based on insights from poorly known Cuban mammals.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (RLS) is the key global tool for objective, repeatable assessment of species' extinction risk status, and plays an essential role in tracking biodiversity loss and guiding conservation action. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) data sets on global ecosystem distributions and functioning show exciting potential for informing range-based RLS assessment, but their incorporation has been restricted by low temporal resolution and coverage of data sets, lack of incorporation of degradation-driven habitat loss, and noninclusion of assumptions related to identification of changing habitat distributions for taxa with varying habitat dependency and ecologies. For poorly known mangrove-associated Cuban hutias (Mesocapromys spp.), we tested the impact of possible assumptions regarding these issues on range-based RLS assessment outcomes. Specifically, we used annual (1985-2018) Landsat data and land-cover classification and habitat degradation analyses across different internal time series slices to simulate range-based RLS assessments for our case study taxa to explore potential assessment uncertainty arising from temporal SRS data set coverage, incorporating proxies of (change in) habitat quality, and assumptions on spatial scaling of habitat extent for RLS parameter generation. We found extensive variation in simulated species-specific range-based RLS assessments, and this variation was mostly associated with the time series over which parameters were estimated. However, results of some species-specific assessments differed by up to 3 categories (near threatened to critically endangered) within the same time series, due to the effects of incorporating habitat quality and the spatial scaling used in RLS parameter estimation. Our results showed that a one-size-fits-all approach to incorporating SRS information in RLS assessment is inappropriate, and we urge caution in conducting range-based assessments with SRS for species for which habitat dependence on specific ecosystem types is incompletely understood. We propose novel revisions to parameter spatial scaling guidelines to improve integration of existing time series data on ecosystem change into the RLS assessment process.

La Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas (LREA) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza es la herramienta mundial más importante para la evaluación objetiva y repetible del estado de riesgo de extinción de una especie y juega un papel esencial en el seguimiento de la pérdida de la biodiversidad y en la orientación de las acciones de conservación. Los conjuntos de datos obtenidos por telemetría satelital (SRS) sobre la distribución y funcionamiento de los ecosistemas globales tienen un potencial emocionante para informar las evaluaciones de la LREA basadas en la extensión de la distribución de la especie, pero su incorporación dentro de los estudios ha estado restringida por la baja resolución temporal y la poca cobertura de los conjuntos de datos, la falta de inclusión de la pérdida de hábitat causada por la degradación y la nula inclusión de las suposiciones relacionadas con la identificación del cambio de hábitat de distribución para los taxones con una ecología y una dependencia por el hábitat variantes. Analizamos el impacto de las posibles suposiciones con respecto a los tres temas anteriores sobre los resultados de la evaluación de la LREA basada en la distribución de la jutía cubana (Mesocapromys spp.), una especie poco conocida y asociada con manglares. Específicamente, usamos los datos anuales (1985-2018) de Landsat y de la clasificación del uso de suelo y los análisis de degradación del hábitat en diferentes porciones de series temporales internas para simular las evaluaciones de la LREA basadas en la extensión para nuestro taxón de estudio y así explorar la incertidumbre potencial de la evaluación que surge de la cobertura del conjunto de datos SRS temporales. También incorporamos sustitutos de (cambio en) la calidad del hábitat y suposiciones sobre la escala espacial de la extensión del hábitat para la generación de parámetros de la LREA. Encontramos una variación extensa en las evaluaciones simuladas de la LREA específicas de especie y basadas en la extensión. Esta variación estuvo principalmente asociada con la serie temporal sobre la cual se estimaron los parámetros. Sin embargo, los resultados de algunas evaluaciones específicas de especie difirieron hasta en tres categorías (de casi amenazada hasta en peligro crítico) dentro de la misma serie temporal debido a los efectos de la incorporación de la calidad del hábitat y la escala espacial usadas en la estimación de parámetros de la LREA. Nuestros resultados muestran que un enfoque genérico para incorporar la información de SRS en la evaluación de la LREA es inapropiado e instamos precaución al realizar evaluaciones basadas en la extensión con datos SRS para especies cuya dependencia de hábitat por tipos específicos de ecosistemas no está entendida por completo. Proponemos que existan revisiones novedosas de las pautas para los parámetros de las escalas espaciales y así mejorar la integración de los datos existentes de series temporales sobre el cambio en el ecosistema dentro de los procesos de evaluación de RLS. Identificación de las Posibilidades y las Dificultades para la Realización de Evaluaciones de la Lista Roja de la UICN a partir de Información de Hábitat Detectada Remotamente con base en la Información sobre Mamíferos Cubanos Poco Conocidos.

Ancient DNA Suggests Single Colonization and Within-Archipelago Diversification of Caribbean Caviomorph Rodents.

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of island biotas is complicated by unusual morphological evolution in insular environments. However, past human-caused extinctions limit the use of molecular analyses to determine origins and affinities of enigmatic island taxa. The Caribbean formerly contained a morphologically diverse assemblage of caviomorph rodents (33 species in 19 genera), ranging from ∼0.1 to 200 kg and traditionally classified into three higher-order taxa (Capromyidae/Capromyinae, Heteropsomyinae, and Heptaxodontidae). Few species survive today, and the evolutionary affinities of living and extinct Caribbean caviomorphs to each other and to mainland taxa are unclear: Are they monophyletic, polyphyletic, or paraphyletic? We use ancient DNA techniques to present the first genetic data for extinct heteropsomyines and heptaxodontids, as well as for several extinct capromyids, and demonstrate through analysis of mitogenomic and nuclear data sets that all sampled Caribbean caviomorphs represent a well-supported monophyletic group. The remarkable morphological and ecological variation observed across living and extinct caviomorphs from Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and other islands was generated through within-archipelago evolutionary radiation following a single Early Miocene overwater colonization. This evolutionary pattern contrasts with the origination of diversity in many other Caribbean groups. All living and extinct Caribbean caviomorphs comprise a single biologically remarkable subfamily (Capromyinae) within the morphologically conservative living Neotropical family Echimyidae. Caribbean caviomorphs represent an important new example of insular mammalian adaptive radiation, where taxa retaining "ancestral-type" characteristics coexisted alongside taxa occupying novel island niches. Diversification was associated with the greatest insular body mass increase recorded in rodents and possibly the greatest for any mammal lineage.

Effects of protected areas on survival of threatened gibbons in China.

Establishing protected areas (PAs) is an essential strategy to reduce biodiversity loss. However, many PAs do not provide adequate protection due to poor funding, inadequate staffing and equipment, and ineffective management. As part of China's recent economic growth, the Chinese government has significantly increased investment in nature reserves over the past 20 years, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate whether PAs can protect threatened species effectively. We compiled data from published literature on populations of gibbons (Hylobatidae), a threatened taxon with cultural significance, that occurred in Chinese reserves after 1980. We evaluated the ability of these PAs to maintain gibbon habitat and populations by comparing forest cover and human disturbance between reserves and their surrounding areas and modeling the impact of reserve characteristics on gibbon population trends. We also assessed the perspective of reserve staff concerning PA management effectiveness through an online survey. Reserves effectively protected gibbon habitat by reducing forest loss and human disturbance; however, half the reserves lost their gibbon populations since being established. Gibbons were more likely to survive in reserves established more recently, at higher elevation, with less forest loss and lower human impact, and that have been relatively well studied. A larger initial population size in the 1980s was positively associated with gibbon persistence. Although staff of all reserves reported increased investment and improved management over the past 20-30 years, no relationship was found between management effectiveness and gibbon population trends. We suggest early and emphatic intervention is critical to stop population decline and prevent extinction.

Efectos de las Áreas Protegidas sobre la Supervivencia de Gibones Amenazados en China Resumen El establecimiento de áreas protegidas (APs) es una estrategia esencial para la reducción de la pérdida de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, muchas APs no proporcionan una protección adecuada debido a un mal financiamiento, personal y equipamientos inadecuados y un manejo poco efectivo. Como parte del reciente crecimiento económico en China, el gobierno del país ha incrementado significativamente la inversión en las reservas naturales durante los últimos 20 años, proporcionando así una oportunidad única para evaluar si las APs pueden proteger a las especies amenazadas de manera efectiva. Recopilamos datos de la literatura publicada sobre las poblaciones de gibones (Hylobatidae), un taxón amenazado que cuenta con importancia cultural, que se presentaron en las reservas chinas después de 1980. Evaluamos la habilidad de estas APs para mantener el hábitat y las poblaciones de gibones al comparar la cobertura del bosque y la perturbación humana entre las reservas y las áreas vecinas y al modelar el impacto de las características de la reserva sobre las tendencias poblacionales de los gibones. También evaluamos la perspectiva del personal de la reserva con respecto a la efectividad en el manejo de la AP por medio de una encuesta en línea. Las reservas protegieron efectivamente al hábitat de los gibones mediante la reducción de la pérdida del bosque y de la perturbación humana; sin embargo, la mitad de las reservas perdieron su población de gibones desde su establecimiento. Los gibones tuvieron mayores probabilidades de sobrevivir en las reservas establecidas más recientemente, a una elevación más alta, con menor pérdida de bosque y menor impacto humano, y las cuales han sido relativamente bien estudiadas. Un tamaño de población inicial mayor durante la década de 1980 estuvo asociado positivamente con la permanencia de los gibones. Aunque el personal de todas las reservas reportó un incremento en la inversión y mejoras en el manejo durante los últimos 20-30 años, no encontramos una relación entre la efectividad en el manejo y las tendencias poblacionales de los gibones. Sugerimos que una intervención temprana y empática es crítica para detener la declinación poblacional y prevenir la extinción.

Correction to 'Unexpected diversity within the extinct elephant birds (Aves: Aepyornithidae) and a new identity for the world's largest bird'.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1098/rsos.181295.].

The past and future human impact on mammalian diversity.

To understand the current biodiversity crisis, it is crucial to determine how humans have affected biodiversity in the past. However, the extent of human involvement in species extinctions from the Late Pleistocene onward remains contentious. Here, we apply Bayesian models to the fossil record to estimate how mammalian extinction rates have changed over the past 126,000 years, inferring specific times of rate increases. We specifically test the hypothesis of human-caused extinctions by using posterior predictive methods. We find that human population size is able to predict past extinctions with 96% accuracy. Predictors based on past climate, in contrast, perform no better than expected by chance, suggesting that climate had a negligible impact on global mammal extinctions. Based on current trends, we predict for the near future a rate escalation of unprecedented magnitude. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of the human impact on past and predicted future extinctions of mammals.

Rapid size change associated with intra-island evolutionary radiation in extinct Caribbean "island-shrews".

BACKGROUND: The Caribbean offers a unique opportunity to study evolutionary dynamics in insular mammals. However, the recent extinction of most Caribbean non-volant mammals has obstructed evolutionary studies, and poor DNA preservation associated with tropical environments means that very few ancient DNA sequences are available for extinct vertebrates known from the region's Holocene subfossil record. The endemic Caribbean eulipotyphlan family Nesophontidae ("island-shrews") became extinct ~ 500 years ago, and the taxonomic validity of many Nesophontes species and their wider evolutionary dynamics remain unclear. Here we use both morphometric and palaeogenomic methods to clarify the status and evolutionary history of Nesophontes species from Hispaniola, the second-largest Caribbean island. RESULTS: Principal component analysis of 65 Nesophontes mandibles from late Quaternary fossil sites across Hispaniola identified three non-overlapping morphometric clusters, providing statistical support for the existence of three size-differentiated Hispaniolan Nesophontes species. We were also able to extract and sequence ancient DNA from a ~ 750-year-old specimen of Nesophontes zamicrus, the smallest non-volant Caribbean mammal, including a whole-mitochondrial genome and partial nuclear genes. Nesophontes paramicrus (39-47 g) and N. zamicrus (~ 10 g) diverged recently during the Middle Pleistocene (mean estimated divergence = 0.699 Ma), comparable to the youngest species splits in Eulipotyphla and other mammal groups. Pairwise genetic distance values for N. paramicrus and N. zamicrus based on mitochondrial and nuclear genes are low, but fall within the range of comparative pairwise data for extant eulipotyphlan species-pairs. CONCLUSIONS: Our combined morphometric and palaeogenomic analyses provide evidence for multiple co-occurring species and rapid body size evolution in Hispaniolan Nesophontes, in contrast to patterns of genetic and morphometric differentiation seen in Hispaniola's extant non-volant land mammals. Different components of Hispaniola's mammal fauna have therefore exhibited drastically different rates of morphological evolution. Morphological evolution in Nesophontes is also rapid compared to patterns across the Eulipotyphla, and our study provides an important new example of rapid body size change in a small-bodied insular vertebrate lineage. The Caribbean was a hotspot for evolutionary diversification as well as preserving ancient biodiversity, and studying the surviving representatives of its mammal fauna is insufficient to reveal the evolutionary patterns and processes that generated regional diversity.

Biodiversity Conservation and the Earth System: Mind the Gap.

One of the most striking human impacts on global biodiversity is the ongoing depletion of large vertebrates from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent work suggests this loss of megafauna can affect processes at biome or Earth system scales with potentially serious impacts on ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, and biogeochemical cycles. We argue that our contemporary approach to biodiversity conservation focuses on spatial scales that are too small to adequately address these impacts. We advocate a new global approach to address this conservation gap, which must enable megafaunal populations to recover to functionally relevant densities. We conclude that re-establishing biome and Earth system functions needs to become an urgent global priority for conservation science and policy.